... The warning, on the Guards’ Web site, was issued despite an admission by Iran’s most senior panel of election monitors that the number of votes cast in 50 cities exceeded the actual number of voters ...
Um ... Oops!
It seemed to me until as early as this weekend, that the protests in Iran were not going to result in any major change in that country because those in power had too much ... well ... power. But they forgot an important rule:
If you're going to be a dictator, don't ever admit to voter fraud.
Yes, an outraged citizenry can make a big difference, but usually when a government is toppled, there is a need for either a military force to switch sides and join the protestors or for there to be a military power vacuum, as happened in Eastern Europe in 1989-90. Military power can trump political will, unfortunately, as we saw in Tiananmen Square 20 years ago.
The hard-line leaders of Iran have made a strategic mistake in effectively admitting voter fraud but still claiming legitimacy.
This will extend the crisis, embolden and enlarge the crowds in the streets.
Two possibilities:
1) This open example of fraud will inspire someone in power (military, perhaps) to switch sides. This may lead to any number of possibilities from bloodless coup to revolt and civil war.
2) There will need to be a brutal crackdown on the protesters on the level of Tiananmen. If the Iranian leaders do not have the stomach or means for such a crackdown, they could be toppled.
Let us hope there is an option found with limited bloodshed. That would involve serious election reform and a change to the Iranian constitution.
This is a crisis of Iran's national conscience. Their people are confronted with two conflicting ideas: free elections and hardline rule. If they have one, how can they have the other?
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