First off, sorry I haven't blogged recently. Let's just say I've been distracted by the treehouse work.
Anyway, looking ahead to the Nevada primary on Saturday, I just keep seeing trouble. Politicians campaigning in Las Vegas. Hmmm. .... With so many political careers ruined by sex, drugs, gambling and other vices, it seems dangerous to bring a major presidential campaign to Sin City. Kinda like sending an alcoholic on a tour of a whiskey distillery.
I can't wait to see what kind of headlines come out of the mixture of power, sex, money and temptation.
Then again, this may be a key test for some candidates and their staffs. If they can survive here, we might learn something about their character. If they fail, we may learn something of their weaknesses.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Presidential selector
Here's how the candidates fared when I filled out the 2008 President Selector
http://selectsmart.com/president/2008.html
Rankings:
1. Theoretical Ideal Candidate (100 %)
2. Barack Obama (98 %)
3. Dennis Kucinich (96 %)
4. Christopher Dodd (withdrawn) (90 %)
5. John Edwards (90 %)
6. Wesley Clark (not running, endorsed Clinton) (87 %)
7. Joseph Biden (withdrawn) (84 %)
8. Hillary Clinton (83 %)
9. Al Gore (not announced) (80 %)
10. Bill Richardson (77 %)
11. Michael Bloomberg (says he will not run) (75 %)
12. Alan Augustson (campaign suspended) (75 %)
13. Mike Gravel (63 %)
14. Elaine Brown (56 %)
15. Ron Paul (51 %)
16. Rudolph Giuliani (38 %)
17. Kent McManigal (campaign suspended) (37 %)
18. John McCain (33 %)
19. Tommy Thompson (withdrawn, endorsed Giuliani) (29 %)
20. Mike Huckabee (27 %)
21. Mitt Romney (25 %)
22. Chuck Hagel (not running) (16 %)
23. Newt Gingrich (says he will not run) (15 %)
24. Tom Tancredo (withdrawn, endorsed Romney) (15 %)
25. Sam Brownback (withdrawn, endorsed McCain) (13 %)
26. Alan Keyes (12 %)
27. Fred Thompson (10 %)
28. Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) (6 %)
29. Duncan Hunter (3 %)
30. Stephen Colbert (campaign halted) (0 %)
It appears I'm an Obama supporter. I'm not surprised that Hillary didn't do better.
http://selectsmart.com/president/2008.html
Rankings:
1. Theoretical Ideal Candidate (100 %)
2. Barack Obama (98 %)
3. Dennis Kucinich (96 %)
4. Christopher Dodd (withdrawn) (90 %)
5. John Edwards (90 %)
6. Wesley Clark (not running, endorsed Clinton) (87 %)
7. Joseph Biden (withdrawn) (84 %)
8. Hillary Clinton (83 %)
9. Al Gore (not announced) (80 %)
10. Bill Richardson (77 %)
11. Michael Bloomberg (says he will not run) (75 %)
12. Alan Augustson (campaign suspended) (75 %)
13. Mike Gravel (63 %)
14. Elaine Brown (56 %)
15. Ron Paul (51 %)
16. Rudolph Giuliani (38 %)
17. Kent McManigal (campaign suspended) (37 %)
18. John McCain (33 %)
19. Tommy Thompson (withdrawn, endorsed Giuliani) (29 %)
20. Mike Huckabee (27 %)
21. Mitt Romney (25 %)
22. Chuck Hagel (not running) (16 %)
23. Newt Gingrich (says he will not run) (15 %)
24. Tom Tancredo (withdrawn, endorsed Romney) (15 %)
25. Sam Brownback (withdrawn, endorsed McCain) (13 %)
26. Alan Keyes (12 %)
27. Fred Thompson (10 %)
28. Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) (6 %)
29. Duncan Hunter (3 %)
30. Stephen Colbert (campaign halted) (0 %)
It appears I'm an Obama supporter. I'm not surprised that Hillary didn't do better.
Is Hillary finished?
Those are the words that popped up when I went to check my Yahoo e-mail acccount. It's a question I've seen asked or implied on cable news stations this morning as the voting goes on in New Hampshire with Hillary Clinton down in the polls, trailing Barack Obama.
It seems to me that the more the media asks questions like this, the bigger a role the media has in her potential downfall. They essentially create a self-fulfilling prophecy. But they do it without making the prophecy, but by being the instrument for planting the seeds of doubt in the minds of the voters.
I don't think she is necessarily finished. She has a large organization, a lot of support with the party bigwigs. I believe she also has a lot of superdelegates who are already committed to her for the convention.
This race actually is shaping up similarly to the 1984 contest between Hart and Mondale. Hart grabbed the early attention by having success in the early primaries. But Mondale had the organization and was able to bounce back. Mondale also used the classic line, "Where's the beef?" to point out the lack of substance in Hart's campaign.
But when Mondale won the nomination, he gave the country the only message from his campaign that really stuck with the voters. That message was "I will raise taxes." That's not the way to win an election, Walt.
CORRECTION: On my earlier blog, I referred to Donna Rice and the Monkey Business scandal. Although Hart is believed to have been seeing Rice during the 84 campaign, the scandal did not erupt until he was the front-runner in the '88 campaign. That was the one where he dropped out, then dropped in again a few months later and then lost. Ed Bond regrets the error.
It seems to me that the more the media asks questions like this, the bigger a role the media has in her potential downfall. They essentially create a self-fulfilling prophecy. But they do it without making the prophecy, but by being the instrument for planting the seeds of doubt in the minds of the voters.
I don't think she is necessarily finished. She has a large organization, a lot of support with the party bigwigs. I believe she also has a lot of superdelegates who are already committed to her for the convention.
This race actually is shaping up similarly to the 1984 contest between Hart and Mondale. Hart grabbed the early attention by having success in the early primaries. But Mondale had the organization and was able to bounce back. Mondale also used the classic line, "Where's the beef?" to point out the lack of substance in Hart's campaign.
But when Mondale won the nomination, he gave the country the only message from his campaign that really stuck with the voters. That message was "I will raise taxes." That's not the way to win an election, Walt.
CORRECTION: On my earlier blog, I referred to Donna Rice and the Monkey Business scandal. Although Hart is believed to have been seeing Rice during the 84 campaign, the scandal did not erupt until he was the front-runner in the '88 campaign. That was the one where he dropped out, then dropped in again a few months later and then lost. Ed Bond regrets the error.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
The chosen one?
First off, I need to explain my skepticism of the political process. It's because I was burned before. In 1984, I was looking for an alternative to the Democrats heir apparent, Walter Mondale. Along came Gary Hart. He was youthful, vigorous and said that what we needed were "new ideas." He was also catching fire with his strong speaking skills. I was a freshman in college, a politics major and looking to get some experience in the political arena. So, I joined his campaign, hoping to find out what his "new ideas" were.
I never found out about new ideas, but he had some old ideas about what to do with Donna Rice on a boat named "Monkey Business." His campaign self destructed.
Now it's 24 years later, Gary Hart is a forgotten former Senator and sometime novelist. And we have another youthful vigorous challenger to another heir apparent - Hillary Clinton - and Barack Obama is telling us all that we need "Change."
Well, Obama is not the chosen one, simply because he hasn't been yet been chosen. But I'm willing to listen. He is saying what the other Democrats are saying: End the war, improve health care, etc. But he is doing it so much better than anyone else. One commentator referred to a "goosebumps" effect when listening to him. To me, his speeches almost have a healing power, bringing together the country rather than pulling it apart, welcoming all into the tent.
So, I welcome his message so far. And I listen to his promises, but as with all politicians I am watching to see whether he can fulfill his promise.
To watch his victory speech in Iowa, click here.
I never found out about new ideas, but he had some old ideas about what to do with Donna Rice on a boat named "Monkey Business." His campaign self destructed.
Now it's 24 years later, Gary Hart is a forgotten former Senator and sometime novelist. And we have another youthful vigorous challenger to another heir apparent - Hillary Clinton - and Barack Obama is telling us all that we need "Change."
Well, Obama is not the chosen one, simply because he hasn't been yet been chosen. But I'm willing to listen. He is saying what the other Democrats are saying: End the war, improve health care, etc. But he is doing it so much better than anyone else. One commentator referred to a "goosebumps" effect when listening to him. To me, his speeches almost have a healing power, bringing together the country rather than pulling it apart, welcoming all into the tent.
So, I welcome his message so far. And I listen to his promises, but as with all politicians I am watching to see whether he can fulfill his promise.
To watch his victory speech in Iowa, click here.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Gallows humor
The other day, the editors were having the daily discussion about the obituaries. As usual, we joked about how the more people who died, the better off we were because that would be that much less space that we would have to fill.
As joking in bad taste goes, this was pretty tame. But taken out of context, someone could be really offended. Then again, journalists aren't the only ones who have a dark humor about tragic events. Police, nurses and firefighters can also use this humor among themselves as a way to relieve stress.
Still, as we joked about obits, dialogue from "His Girl Friday" started playing in my head. In the story, the reporters are joking about the impending execution of Earl Williams as Molly, the only person to befriend the condemned man, stood by:
CLOSEUP MOLLIE
She lashes out at them.
MOLLIE
Go on, laugh! I'd like to know some curses bad enough for your greasy souls! Sure, I was his witness -- the only one he had. Yes -- me -- cheap little Mollie Malloy! I'm
everything the District Attorney said I was. And still I was the only one with guts enough to stand up for him! I told the truth and the District Attorney knows it! That's why you're persecutin' me! Because Earl Williams treated me decent and not like an animal -- and I said so!
MEDIUM SHOT
MURPHY
(finally irritated)
Go into your dance! This is the Press Room. We're busy.
WILSON
Why don't you go and see your boyfriend?
ENDICOTT
(winks at the others)
But you'll have to hurry up -- he left a call for seven A.M.
MOLLIE
(through her teeth)
It's a wonder a bolt of lightning don't come down and strike you all
dead!
From o.s. comes sound of the gallows. Mollie gasps.
ENDICOTT
(suddenly uncomfortable)
Don't get hysterical, kid.
MOLLIE
(begins to sob)
Shame on you!
CLOSE SHOT MOLLIE -- TAKING IN MURPHY
MOLLIE
(hysterically)
A poor little fellow that never meant nobody no harm! Sitting there alone
this minute with the Angel of Death beside him, and you cracking jokes!
Hildy comes into scene and puts her arm around Mollie. ...
MOLLIE
They're not human!
HILDY
They're newspaper men, Mollie. They can't help themselves. The Lord made
them that way.
MOLLIE
(one look back as Hildy leads her out door)
It wasn't the Lord! It was the devil!
... So, what's funny depends on who's listening.
As joking in bad taste goes, this was pretty tame. But taken out of context, someone could be really offended. Then again, journalists aren't the only ones who have a dark humor about tragic events. Police, nurses and firefighters can also use this humor among themselves as a way to relieve stress.
Still, as we joked about obits, dialogue from "His Girl Friday" started playing in my head. In the story, the reporters are joking about the impending execution of Earl Williams as Molly, the only person to befriend the condemned man, stood by:
CLOSEUP MOLLIE
She lashes out at them.
MOLLIE
Go on, laugh! I'd like to know some curses bad enough for your greasy souls! Sure, I was his witness -- the only one he had. Yes -- me -- cheap little Mollie Malloy! I'm
everything the District Attorney said I was. And still I was the only one with guts enough to stand up for him! I told the truth and the District Attorney knows it! That's why you're persecutin' me! Because Earl Williams treated me decent and not like an animal -- and I said so!
MEDIUM SHOT
MURPHY
(finally irritated)
Go into your dance! This is the Press Room. We're busy.
WILSON
Why don't you go and see your boyfriend?
ENDICOTT
(winks at the others)
But you'll have to hurry up -- he left a call for seven A.M.
MOLLIE
(through her teeth)
It's a wonder a bolt of lightning don't come down and strike you all
dead!
From o.s. comes sound of the gallows. Mollie gasps.
ENDICOTT
(suddenly uncomfortable)
Don't get hysterical, kid.
MOLLIE
(begins to sob)
Shame on you!
CLOSE SHOT MOLLIE -- TAKING IN MURPHY
MOLLIE
(hysterically)
A poor little fellow that never meant nobody no harm! Sitting there alone
this minute with the Angel of Death beside him, and you cracking jokes!
Hildy comes into scene and puts her arm around Mollie. ...
MOLLIE
They're not human!
HILDY
They're newspaper men, Mollie. They can't help themselves. The Lord made
them that way.
MOLLIE
(one look back as Hildy leads her out door)
It wasn't the Lord! It was the devil!
... So, what's funny depends on who's listening.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
The trouble with Pakistan
As we watch the events spin out of control in Pakistan, we should keep one factor in mind - Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country.
The odds of one of their dozens of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands are remote. The military appears to have firm control of their bombs. But if the government falls, if the country destabilizes - and these are fairly big ifs - and if Islamic extremists come to power in that country, the repercussions could be very bad. That could put nuclear weapons into the hands of al-Qaida.
Again, the chances of this are remote. The country is troubled and reeling from days of riots that followed in the wake of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. However, Pakistan also has a large population of moderate Islamists who yearn for freedom and democracy. This may be key to stabilizing the country.
However, the violence and the possible derailment of the elections could have a devastating effect on the spirit of these people. Desperate situations can create desperate people, and put dangerous people into power.
The odds of one of their dozens of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands are remote. The military appears to have firm control of their bombs. But if the government falls, if the country destabilizes - and these are fairly big ifs - and if Islamic extremists come to power in that country, the repercussions could be very bad. That could put nuclear weapons into the hands of al-Qaida.
Again, the chances of this are remote. The country is troubled and reeling from days of riots that followed in the wake of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. However, Pakistan also has a large population of moderate Islamists who yearn for freedom and democracy. This may be key to stabilizing the country.
However, the violence and the possible derailment of the elections could have a devastating effect on the spirit of these people. Desperate situations can create desperate people, and put dangerous people into power.
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